Bloomberg L.P.

US Recession Chances Surge to 38%, Bloomberg Economics Model Says

The probability model, which incorporates a variety of factors ranging from housing permits and consumer survey data to the gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, is now flashing a 38% ...

Probability underlies much of the modern world – an engineering professor explains how it actually works

Probability underpins AI, cryptography and statistics. However, as the philosopher Bertrand Russell said, “Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the ...
Seeking Alpha

Credit Spreads And Default Probabilities: A Simple Model Validation Example

Traders in bonds and credit default swaps are bombarded with information on the default probabilities implied by credit spreads using a simple ratio. This ratio predicts that the credit spread will be ...
The Conversation

Probability underlies much of the modern world – an engineering professor explains how it actually works

Zachary del Rosario has received funding from the National Science Foundation and Toyota Research Institute. Probability underpins AI, cryptography and statistics. However, as the philosopher Bertrand ...