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How do scientists calculate the probability that an asteroid could hit Earth?

The 2024 YR4 asteroid may come close to Earth, but how do experts calculate this potential impact?

Probability underlies much of the modern world – an engineering professor explains how it actually works

Probability underpins AI, cryptography and statistics. However, as the philosopher Bertrand Russell said, “Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the ...
The Conversation

How do scientists calculate the probability that an asteroid could hit Earth?

I have been studying planetary defense, particularly being part of past, ongoing, and future small body missions. I was part of the NASA/DART mission. I am currently part of the NASA/Lucy mission and ...